Josh Kraushaar's post on Capitol Hill Insiders | Latest updates on Sulia
Here's the one major inconsistency in the Obama campaign argument to @MarkHalperin
The biggest disconnect between the Obama and Romney camps is their view of the 2012 electorate. In the Halperin interview, top O officials believe they will be able to increase the minority and youth % of the electorate from 2008, and point to early vote tallies and GOTV operations as evidence. They think Romney optimism is based on an assumption that minority/youth enthusiasm will be down.
The one hole in that argument is their own acknowledgment of where they're running strongest -- the five-state firewall of OH, IA, NH, NV and WI. With the notable exception of NV, these are heavily-white states and skew older. These aren't the states where their base coalition; it's where they're running competitively enough with white voters (particularly working-class women). And implicity, they acknowledge they're not ahead (they're tied, presumably) in the states with the highest youth/minority vote combo: VA, NC and CO.
So if the GOTV operation is firing on all cylinders in a state like VA but the race is even, one would imagine he's struggling with white voters. And in order to win those firewall states, he has to overperform his natl average with those same white voters.
So, while it appears like the Obama GOTV effort is impressive, something doesn't add up...